Youth Bulge in Iran:
Research Gaps and Policy Implications
rasoul
sadeghi
عضو هیأت علمی گروه جمعیت شناسی دانشگاه تهران
author
mohammad jalal
abassi shavazi
استاد جمعیتشناسی دانشگاه تهران
author
seraj
mahmoodiani
دانشجوی دکتری جمعیتشناسی دانشگاه تهران
author
text
article
2015
per
Youth are source of development as well as social problems. The paradoxical nature of challenges and opportunities of a young population clearly highlights the necessity of accurate and multi-faceted scientific understanding of young adult years. Thus, using systematic review of studies conducted on youth in Iran in recent four decades, this paper aims to undertake the situation and problems related to youth bulge in Iran. The results of systematic review indicated that most studies were related to such themes as social problems and pathology of the youth, whereas the least number of studies was conducted on such topics as aspirations and goals of youth especially with regards to their future. Additionally, topics such as education and employment, leisure time, marriage and family formation, social participation, identity, risk behaviors, internet, media and virtual world, religiosity, intergenerational interactions, migration and movement, pre-marriage intimacy and relationships between boys and girls have also been reviewed. Despite the research carried out in recent years, there is a lack of satisfactory and realistic understanding of various facets of the life experiences of youths, and many questions still remain unanswered. Youth bulge, and the rapid pace of social and demographic events during the last few years has introduced various research gaps that discussed in the paper. In conclusion, the youth bulge is not only of important in terms of population weight but also in its economic, social and political aspects.
Journal of Population Association of Iran
Population Association of Iran
2008-3742
10
v.
19
no.
2015
9
43
https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_25585_58a378ac053c6f08f57e468d0ecf6b22.pdf
Effects of Population Size and Education on Innovation
farrokh
mostafavi
دانشیار جامعه شناسی، موسسه عالی آموزش و پژوهش مدیریت و برنامه ریزی
author
text
article
2015
per
Some researchers posit that population size has a positive relation with innovation and production and use of knowledge, and that population growth will lead to increase in innovation. Research shows that education quality is positively associated with innovation. This paper is concerned with the effects of population size and education on innovation. Data used are related to information on 46 countries which are acquired from various sources, including the World Bank, United Nations, World Intellectual Property Organization, and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Negative Binomial Regression model is used to analyze data. Results indicate that education quality has a positive and signification association with innovation. No significant association, however, between population size and innovation was found. From a policy point of view, investment in education quality can enhance creativity and innovation, and play an effective role in solving problems of economic and social development and population growth.
Journal of Population Association of Iran
Population Association of Iran
2008-3742
10
v.
19
no.
2015
45
61
https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_25586_67beb972ce52fbc137a8306e3fd2e8e9.pdf
First Birth Interval and its determinants in Semnan Province by Parametric Survival Model
mahsa
saadati
استادیار آمار زیستی، مؤسسه مطالعات و مدیریت جامع و تخصصی جمعیت کشور
author
arezoo
bagheri
استادیار آمار کاربردی، مؤسسه مطالعات و مدیریت جامع و تخصصی جمعیت
author
hajjihe
razeghi
استادیار جمعیت شناسی، مؤسسه مطالعات و مدیریت جامع و تخصصی جمعیت کشور
author
text
article
2015
per
One of the features of below replacement fertility level is increasing first birth interval which has occurred in recent years in Iran. According to importance of using valid statiatical methods for analyzing first birth interval, in this article parametric survival method were introduced and compared by nonparametric survival methods for data in fertility and marriage attitudes survey in Semnan. Data were contained 390 married women aged 15 – 49 years old collected by stratified sampling method in Semnan, 2013. In univariate survival analysis, non-parametric methods of Kaplan-Meier and log-Rank test were applied and to investigate the effect of predictors simultaniously on this interval, parametric survival modeling, Log-Logistic, were also used. The results showed that the mean of first birth interval was 2.72 years and till 4 years after marriage, more than 90 percent of women delivered their first child. Based on parametric survival model results, rural, employed, and less educated women, compared with urban, unemployed, and higher educated women had shorter first birth interval, respectively.
Journal of Population Association of Iran
Population Association of Iran
2008-3742
10
v.
19
no.
2015
63
87
https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_25587_ef658deadfbda453fb301fe6a69359d7.pdf
Population Simulation of Small Areas in the Base Year
mohammad taghi
moti
دانشجوی دکترای آمار دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
author
hamidreza
navabpoor
دانشیار آمار دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
author
text
article
2015
per
Population predictions in Iran are normally conducted in a large scale, i.e., at national and provincial levels, due to the lack of ancillary information. However, Population projection with different features in small areas (city, district, municipality, etc.) increases the ability to meet the statistical needs of researchers, policy makers, and planners. With respect to the fact that all the small area data are not generally available, moreover knowing the households and individuals' frequency distribution (e.g. age by gender, type of household and etc.) is vital, the synthetic simulation of small areas populations with the targeted features seems to be of great importance. Since access to many population and population features in small areas are not possible through censuses, many researchers have been seeking for methodologies to simulate the small areas populations. In recent years, a variety of methods have been invented for population simulation including the sample-based method. This paper has used this method to simulate populations of selected small areas of different features with a synthetic method for the base year 2006 by suggesting remedy for its drawbacks. Moreover, with respect to some measures, performance of the method is compared to the censual data.
Journal of Population Association of Iran
Population Association of Iran
2008-3742
10
v.
19
no.
2015
89
107
https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_25588_e2c8604340dc2fc41efe012831ba3057.pdf
Comparative study of sense of social security between headed household women and women having supervisor (A study in the city of Ramhormoz)
jafar
kordzangane
استادیار جمعیتشناسی، گروه علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران
author
text
article
2015
per
The aim of the present study was comparative study of sense of social security in the eight dimentions (security of cultural, legal, financial, bodily, truth, moral, ethical and emotional) between headed household women, and women having supervisor in the city of Ramhormoz.The statistical society of this reaserch include all covered women of welfare Ramhormoz city as the first part of the sampel size that 222 headed household women chosen with a simple random sampling method, and among other women living in the city of Ramhormoz that have supervisor 202 women chosen with a haphazard sampling (n = 424). Findings show relationship between the level of education, attitude to coverage, income, social support, and cause of Supervision and sense of social security. The T test results show that the average sense of social security between the women headed household and the women who have supervisor is significantly different in the financial, bodily, emotional and cultural dimensions. Level of education, income and social support explain the variance of women,s sense of social security. By accepting the role of these three variables in the women empowerment, we conclude that empovering the woman cause an increased confidence, achieving an independent identity, improve their social status and finaly feel more secure for them, which will benefit the whole community
Journal of Population Association of Iran
Population Association of Iran
2008-3742
10
v.
19
no.
2015
109
142
https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_25589_7fdba4d6d7e584a2dac2866d6bc1b825.pdf
Tempo effect of childbearing and adjusted level of fertility in Iran
mohammadreza
boromandzadeh
دانشجوی دکتری جمعیتشناسی، دانشگاه تهران
author
aliyar
ahmadi
دانشیار جمعیتشناسی، بخش جامعهشناسی و برنامهریزی اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز
author
text
article
2015
per
Although the demographic literature offers many measures of fertility, the total fertility rate (TFR) is now used more often than any other indicator. The TFR is defined as the average number of births a woman would have if she were to live through her reproductive years (ages 15– 49) bear children at each age at the rates observed in a particular year or period. It is a hypothetical measure because no real group of women has experienced or will necessarily experience these particular rates. But this measure is disturbed by some timing effects called Tempo effects - distortions due to changes in the timing of births. The conventional TFR can be considered to consist of a quantum and a tempo component. Quantum component of the TFR would have been observed in the absence of changes in the timing of childbearing during the period in which the TFR is measured. The tempo component equals the distortion that occurs due to timing changes. In this paper history and the methodology of the tempo and quantum effects of fertility is discussed and the methods to adjust the total fertility rate (TFR) are elaborated focusing on method presented by Bongaarts and Feeney (BF method 1998). Meanwhile the analyses of fertility rates in this duration (1996-2011) in Iran illustrate the necessity of employing tempo adjusted methods in measuring fertility.
Journal of Population Association of Iran
Population Association of Iran
2008-3742
10
v.
19
no.
2015
143
163
https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_25590_ed2c8f5b7544fed8deca557cf842e795.pdf
Family-Work Conflict and its Relation to Fertility Behavior
A study among employed women in education section in the city of Yazd
hajiihe
razeghi
Assistant Professor of Demography,National Institute for Population Research, Tehran, Iran
author
malihe
alimandegari
Assistant Professor of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
author
Ali
Mohammadipour
MA in Demography, Department of Social Sciences, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
author
text
article
2015
per
When matching employed women work outside the home and Their roles within the home may face several problems. This study attempts to investigate the conflict between work and family and its relationship with fertility of employed women. This is based on a survey in 2014 conducted among married women working in education section in the city of Yazd. The results show that the average score of respondents’ work-family conflict is 46.07 that is at an intermediate level. The remarkable Point is relatively high-conflict family environment than the workplace. Bivariate analysis of the data showed that the number of children is negatively correlated with work-family conflict. The highest average score of work-family conflict belonging to women with one child and is equal to 54.12. Among most of women in this group, duration of marriage is less than 9 year and many of them have young children. In multivariate analysis, Duration of marriage, positions and participation of men in housework are variables that reduced impact of conflict on fertility. Despite women's experience of conflict in the family, do their family roles. With regard to the role of women in strengthening relationships between family members, increasing social support of family roles, flexible working hours and part-time work for women can be effective in reducing work-family conflict.
Journal of Population Association of Iran
Population Association of Iran
2008-3742
10
v.
19
no.
2015
165
193
https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_25591_fb7971b914df192bd4ddd1a7de812bf1.pdf